The next few years are set to reshape the office market. Developers will need to redefine their operating models, while tenants will have to learn to plan well in advance. Those who move first will gain an advantage, as premium offices are becoming scarce and strategy matters more than ever, says Karol Wyka, Executive Board Director, Head of Office Department, Newmark Polska.
Today’s Warsaw office market is a tale of two cities. In the City Centre and Centre West, supply is tightening and tenants are battling for every square metre. Meanwhile, in Służewiec, entire floorplates are still sitting empty, waiting for occupiers. It is a similar story across regional cities: smaller companies have plenty to choose from and can negotiate favourable lease terms, but organisations seeking larger offices there are facing challenges, as such units are simply in short supply.
“The office market is evolving and tenants are being pushed to think more strategically than ever before. Instead of focusing solely on immediate cost-cutting, they are increasingly looking at long-term value: location, transport links, a building’s reputation or the quality of landlord services. The overall user experience is playing a much bigger role now – this includes an easy commute to the office and access to restaurants, kindergartens and services in the vicinity. Tenants are also asking about amenities such as short-term parking or visitor parking spaces. All of this shows that even details can sway the choice of a building,” says Karol Wyka.
Warsaw race for the dream office
Competition for prime office buildings in the capital is intensifying. Companies that missed the opportunity to relocate now face a stark choice: renegotiate their current lease or move outside the city centre. “Since 2023, the office market has been experiencing a supply gap, and its consequences are becoming more pronounced each quarter. In 2026, only around 60,000 sqm of new office space is expected to be delivered across Warsaw – likely the lowest annual volume since records for the Warsaw office market began,” says Karol Wyka, Newmark Polska. Low new supply has pushed Warsaw’s vacancy rate below 10 per cent for the first time since late 2020, dropping to nearly 7 per cent in the Central Business District (CBD) and just 5.8 per cent in the area near Rondo Daszyńskiego – in the Centre West zone. At first glance, the market seems to be rebalancing and becoming landlord-friendly once again. But as the expert points out, the devil is in the detail.
“The average vacancy rate in Warsaw does not tell the real story. While every vacant square metre in the CBD is snapped up instantly, vacancies in Służewiec or along the Żwirki i Wigury corridor reach 17–18 per cent. Although there are still attractive options available in these areas, they require careful analysis of quality, transport accessibility and service availability,” notes Karol Wyka.
The clock is ticking for the largest
With development activity subdued and supply limited, large companies need to plan well ahead for relocations. The biggest organisations should start this process up to five years before their planned move.
The Newmark Polska expert notes that developers who have secured land for new office projects often delay construction until they sign major pre-lets. For companies seeking large offices, this creates an opportunity to become a key tenant who effectively kickstarts the project and secures a stronger negotiating position on both financial terms and office fit-out.
“This is why companies seeking larger spaces – typically starting from 5,000 sqm – should begin their leasing process now with a view to 2030. Some may find this horizon too long, but it is important to remember that selecting an adviser, conducting market analysis, assessing the company’s needs, choosing a building and negotiating a lease can take more than a year, while constructing an office building – at least two or three years. Any delay in decision-making could mean that, when the current lease expires, there may simply be nowhere to move on to,” says Karol Wyka.
Regions remain tenant friendly – for now
While the balance of power in central Warsaw is shifting back towards landlords who have a greater say in transaction structuring, tenants continue to enjoy the upper hand in regional cities.
“Vacancy rates in regional cities remain persistently high, above 20 per cent in locations such as Katowice, Wrocław and Łódź. For companies looking for units of up to 4,000 sqm, this is a rare window of opportunity to negotiate genuinely favourable terms,” says Karol Wyka. “But this window won’t stay open for long. Almost no new office space is being added in regional cities. The first three quarters of this year saw just 18,000 sqm delivered, with no single project exceeding 10,000 sqm. This suggests that tenants will lose their advantage within the next two to three years and rents will begin to rise.”
Companies looking for offices larger than 10,000 sqm are facing much tougher conditions. With supply still constrained and vacancies fragmented, large modern offices are simply scarce. “This is why major corporations often have nowhere to relocate to, even if they wanted to. As a result, renegotiations now account for more than 50 per cent of all transactions in regional cities. Smaller firms are also increasingly renewing leases in search of quick savings. But, in the long run, this can be a trap, as buildings age and maintenance costs rise”, says Karol Wyka.
The market is shifting gears
The strongest demand for offices is currently coming from financial and pharmaceutical institutions, and the public sector. By contrast, the technology sector – until recently one of the key drivers of demand – is showing slightly weaker momentum, due to greater work flexibility across IT companies and post-pandemic office downsizing.
According to Grafton Recruitment’s latest report, the IT sector in Poland is growing at a slower, yet still healthy, pace. Tech companies plan their office needs well in advance – sometimes even five to seven years ahead – while focusing on developing technological capabilities, especially in areas such as artificial intelligence and digitalization. According to Karol Wyka, this reflects a maturing market that is shifting from a quantity-driven to a quality-driven approach. “IT tenants no longer need large spaces. Instead, they expect offices that better support hybrid work models and team integration. The market has matured and is now focused on strategic needs and employee expectations, not just on the office size.”
The future belongs to the well-prepared
What is next for the office market in the coming years? “If development activity continues at its current pace, tenants will face higher rents and reduced space availability within the next two to three years”, the expert predicts. “In the longer term, we expect investment activity to rebound – first in Warsaw. Developers will, however, remain cautious until the capital markets recover.”
The Polish office market is entering a phase in which success no longer depends only on rents and sizes but on the ability to plan long-term and respond flexibly to change. Early preparation, thoughtful space management and strategic cooperation with advisers are becoming a cornerstone of stability in an era of constrained office supply. “In this rapidly changing market, an adviser is more than just a broker. They are a partner who can predict risks before they become problems and can assess whether a developer is financially stable and capable of delivering a building on schedule. Through reliable analyses, experienced advisers can help avoid unpleasant surprises after a lease is signed. Our role is also to standardise office listings to ensure transparent and clear comparisons. By assessing parameters relative to a common baseline, we enable tenants to make decisions based on facts rather than apparent differences. In my view, transparency is the key to successful negotiations,” concludes Karol Wyka from Newmark Polska.
